MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – A three-year offensive by Somali forces, bolstered by Turkish and U.S. drone support, is on the verge of collapse as Al-Shabaab militants escalate a relentless counter-offensive in central Somalia now entering its third week.
The Islamist group has reclaimed at least 10 towns and villages, including Biyo Adde and Mirtaqwo in the Middle Shabelle region, eroding hard-fought gains by government troops and allied militias.
Since launching their counter-attack two weeks ago, Al-Shabaab has overrun strategic locations including El Baraf, Ali Foldhere, Aadley, Daru Ni’ma and El Ali Ahmed, while Somali forces have yet to recapture a single town.
The militants’ relentless advance has forced the army into a disorganized retreat, with opposition figures accusing the government of prioritizing political machinations for the 2026 elections over the deteriorating security situation.
Local media, including Shabelle TV, have reported that insurgents encircled Jowhar, the administrative capital of Hirshabelle state, after seizing the nearby village of War-Eise and severing critical supply lines.
Last week, Al-Shabaab briefly captured Bal’ad, just 30 kilometers north of Mogadishu, and launched attacks along the vital Mogadishu-Bal’ad road, further destabilizing the region and exposing the fragility of government control.
The militants are now advancing toward multiple strategic towns, including Jowhar, Adan Yabal, Bal’ad, and Mahaday, stretching Somali forces thin and complicating defense efforts.
Analysts have long warned that the army’s chronic manpower shortages and operational fatigue leave it ill-prepared to hold recaptured territory or counter Al-Shabaab’s agile, diversionary tactics.
In a bid to stem the tide, authorities have deployed reinforcements from Hiran, Galgadud, and Mudug regions to Middle Shabelle. However, Al-Shabaab exploited vulnerabilities by attacking the troops’ bases of origin in diversionary strikes, disrupting reinforcements and undermining frontline defenses.
The campaign, once heralded by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as a swift operation to secure Hirshabelle and Galmudug regions within weeks and eradicate Al-Shabaab in months, has ground to a halt in late 2023.
Recent footage circulating online shows militants seizing vast caches of weapons and military vehicles during their attacks, underscoring the army’s struggles with exhaustion, resource constraints, and strategic disarray.
Al-Shabaab has also reasserted control over key supply routes, including the Mogadishu-Bal’ad road, reversing years of government efforts to secure these critical corridors. The group’s resurgence has reignited concerns about the Somali military’s capacity to sustain its gains and deliver a decisive blow to the insurgency.
As the counter-offensive unfolds, its ultimate trajectory remains uncertain. However, Al-Shabaab’s recent victories highlight the precarious nature of Somalia’s security gains and the formidable challenges facing its military.
The government’s ability to regroup, re-strategize, and address systemic weaknesses will determine whether it can reclaim the initiative or risk further erosion of its hard-won progress.
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