MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – War between Ethiopia and Eritrea appears increasingly likely, with leaders of both nations exchanging sharp accusations and warnings, as military buildup intensifies along both sides of their shared border.
Former Tigray Interim President Getachew Reda, now an advisor to Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, warned this week of an imminent conflict. He accused a TPLF faction aligned with Eritrea of steering the Tigray region toward renewed warfare.
“The foreseeable and forewarned outcome of this unholy alliance—between the Eritrean regime and the reactionary faction within the TPLF, aided by enablers within the Tigray Armed Forces—is the renewed declaration of war on our people,” Reda said on X.
“This destructive path must be rejected by every Tigrayan,” he added.
In a televised interview aired on July 19, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki accused Ethiopia of making provocative threats to seize the Eritrean port of Assab. He dismissed Ethiopia’s assertions as irrational and dangerous.
“The things being said daily [by Ethiopia] are not hidden from the public eye: We will take Assab… we will enter via Sudan and do this and that,” Isaias said, referring to Ethiopian officials’ recent comments about reclaiming the port, which Ethiopia lost after Eritrea’s 1993 independence.
“Can a sane person think like this? This is truly childish provocation. Our message is: ‘No! You had better stay put.’”
Isaias also alleged foreign involvement in the deteriorating situation, accusing the United Arab Emirates of pushing Ethiopia toward a destabilizing war path in the Horn of Africa.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed issued a stern warning to Tigrayan officials aligned with Eritrea, urging them to prevent Tigray from sliding into another conflict.
“Immediately start your work now to prevent Tigray from entering conflict,” Abiy said in remarks interpreted by many in Tigray as a veiled threat of war.
In response, Tigrayan leaders and military commanders expressed growing concern. On July 12, General Haileselassie Girmay, a senior commander in the TPLF-aligned Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), confirmed that regional forces were preparing for potential combat.
We are making preparations due to what we are hearing, he said, pointing to the increasing urgency on the ground.
The anticipation of conflict has triggered widespread alarm in Tigray. Residents in several cities have reportedly begun withdrawing cash from banks and stockpiling food and fuel, according to journalist Martin Plaut.
The Ethiopian government, in a letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres dated June 20, accused Eritrea and the TPLF of planning to launch a major offensive during the current rainy season, which typically lasts from mid-June to mid-September.
Renowned Horn of Africa analyst Rashid Abdi also weighed in on the situation, suggesting that the timeline of any potential conflict may be tied to symbolic national events.
“The timing is anybody’s guess. But the buildup to a new border war is unmistakable. My sense is that Ethiopia would prefer to get its GERD commissioning event in September finished before or ahead of any armed conflict,” Abdi said on X.
“Meanwhile, Eritrea would prefer to foil the GERD event and so will need to act ahead of September. Highly plausible, a war may break out in August.”
With diplomatic tensions rising and military preparations accelerating, regional and international observers warn that a fresh outbreak of war between the two countries could have devastating consequences for the already volatile Horn of Africa.
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