MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Somalia and Ethiopia are edging towards confrontation as tensions intensify in Gedo border region, where Ethiopian forces issued a three-day ultimatum for the Somali National Army (SNA) to withdraw from the strategic town of Balad Hawo, just days after seizing control.
Addis Ababa dispatched a senior Ethiopian military general this week to Dolow, a town along the Somalia-Ethiopia border currently held by Ethiopian troops. The general engaged with Gedo clan elders and Jubaland officials, demanding the Somali federal government vacate Balad Hawo within days.
While Mogadishu has remained reticent on the ultimatum, Ethiopian military helicopters have reportedly been spotted hovering over UK Camp, a Somali military base on Balad Hawo’s periphery. Somali forces are said to have engaged the choppers with gunfire on multiple occasions.
The current escalation follows last week’s seizure of Balad Hawo by Somali federal forces, supported by militias and operatives from the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), after a week of fierce clashes with Jubaland troops. The operation drew the ire of Addis Ababa, which maintains strong backing for Jubaland authorities.
The Ethiopian general emphasized to clan leaders that Jubaland is a steadfast ally of Ethiopia and insisted that Addis Ababa would not tolerate the federal government wresting control of Balad Hawo and the wider Gedo region—a flashpoint that has long strained Addis Ababa-Mogadishu relations, despite recent diplomatic overtures.
In a further escalation last month, Ethiopian forces launched an assault on a NISA base in Dolow, where thousands of Ethiopian troops are stationed. The attack resulted in numerous Somali casualties and arrests, including commanders, with video footage showing a Somali weapons depot engulfed in flames.
Addis Ababa’s aggressive posture aims to preserve Jubaland’s dominance in its ongoing conflict with Mogadishu. Despite repeated Somali government appeals for Ethiopia to cease its support for Jubaland forces, Addis Ababa has remained steadfast.
This tension endures even after Turkey brokered a deal last year to resolve dispute between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, following Ethiopia’s controversial maritime access agreement with the breakaway Somaliland region in January 2024—an act Somalia decried as a breach of sovereignty.
Ahead of the transition from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) last year, Somalia sought to exclude Ethiopia entirely from the peacekeeping operation. However, following Turkish mediation, Ethiopia was granted a significantly reduced troop quota of roughly 1,300 soldiers.
Mogadishu also negotiated for Ethiopian peacekeepers to be redeployed from volatile border regions – including Bay, Bakol, Gedo, and Hiran—to more central areas of Somalia. Addis Ababa refused the proposal. Attempts to garner troop support from other contributors, such as Uganda – which cited security risks for its forces in remote border regions – were unsuccessful.
Additionally, Mogadishu endeavored to replace Ethiopian forces in the border areas with Egyptian special forces, but these efforts faltered amid Ethiopian vigilance and waning Egyptian interest.
While the current standoff in Gedo is primarily a power struggle between Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe and Somalia’s federal President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud – both vying to secure parliamentary seats from the region – reports suggest a deeper, less overt dimension.
Jubaland officials alleged on Saturday that foreign geopolitical agendas, specifically tensions surrounding the Ethiopia-Egypt Nile water dispute, underpin the conflict over Gedo’s control. These assertions align with media reports claiming that Mogadishu seeks to secure key airstrips near the border to facilitate the deployment of Egyptian forces.
Addis Ababa, acutely aware of these maneuvers, is reportedly exerting maximum effort to thwart them and ensure Jubaland’s grip on the region endures – even at the risk of direct confrontation with the Somali army, which remains militarily outmatched.
Though an outright war between Somalia and Ethiopia is not anticipated, the possibility of a diplomatic crisis looms. Such a breakdown could unravel vital bilateral cooperation in counterterrorism and destabilize Somalia’s fragile state-building progress.
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