MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Final preparations are underway in the capital Mogadishu ahead of 2022 Somali presidential election scheduled for Sunday, which is expected to be held at a heavily fortified airport hanger where MPs will pick a new president.
Having delayed for more than 15 months, the vote will be crucial for ending political instability and uncertainty the country has seen over the past year. Still, its future hangs in the balance and calls mount for MPs to anoint a man who can move the country from a dangerous crossroads over the next four years.
A parliamentary election team registered 39 candidates vying for the top office, though two of them have later announced quitting in favor of allied aspirants. A candidate who secures more than 50% of 328 votes cast by MPs of the bicameral parliament will triumph in the first round.
It is believed that 4 candidates will make to the second round, including the incumbent President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, former leader Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and the President of Puntland regional state Saeed Abdullahi Deni.
Under his rule, Farmajo has cultivated an image of dictatorial, anti-federalism leadership that pit him against a number of regional states and opposition leaders. During his reign, he was accused of ordering attacks on the residences of opposition figures, murder of female spy, clampdown on press and use of force against peaceful demonstrators. He also failed to deliver on his pledges, including defeating Al-Shabaab within two years and not a single district has been captured from the group during his term.
Farmajo’s record of the past five years has left dent on his popularity and has given an opportunity for his predecessor Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to mobilize support among the Somali political elite ahead of Sunday’s showdown. Dozens of MPs broke ranks with Farmajo and sided with Mohamud on Friday alone. The former leader has also been secretly endorsed by the Prime Minister, who has long been at loggerheads with the head of state.
Puntland President Saeed Deni is the third most powerful candidate, though his campaign focused on a simple but ambiguous message of political and economic stability. He has also publicly vowed to counter a possible return of Farmajo to office, in what analysts say came due to fear that it could expose his delicate leadership in the semi-autonomous region and would finally lead to his ouster.
Talks between some of the presidential candidates have also spurred speculation of a quid pro quo that may help secure Mohamud’s presidency, with reports suggesting that Deni is seeking the position of Prime Minister. If he triumphs, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud will be the first president to win re-election in Somalia’s history.
Mohamud has no popular record of achievements on security and economic development during his tenure from 2012 until 2017, but the vast majority of the upper echelons of Somali politicians consider him the man of choice to avoid political vendetta under any other president’s leadership. In a recent speech to his supporters, he promised that his presidency will not be characterized by score-settling and retaliation, but vowed that those who had committed crimes including killings will face justice, in an apparent reference to Farmajo allies, including ex-spy boss Fahad Yasin who was accused of murdering a female spy.
For many, there is a higher chance of corruption and nepotism under Mr. Mohamud’s leadership but there will be a degree of political stability than under Farmajo’s reign, who has been fraught with scandals that sent shock waves across the country, including the extradition of a Somali national to Ethiopia, auction of ports and oil reserves, and the saga of recruits trained in Eritrea who have never returned home, among others.
Many regional presidents, including Farmajo allies believe that Mohamud will insulate them and some have secretly promised to endorse him. There is also a possibility of last-minute coalitions that could be a game-changer in the presidential race while payment of millions of dollars in bribes and pledges of top government posts could also be key factors for anyone who has to come to office.
All eyes are on Sunday’s election in Mogadishu during which the city will see a 33-hour curfew and MPs will gather on a sea-side air force hanger manned by the African Union peacekeepers.
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