MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – A new report by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies has warned that it may already be a matter of time before the militant group Al-Shabaab captures Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu – whether through military force or political negotiations – after insurgents seized a succession of towns this year.
Al-Shabaab launched a major offensive in central Somalia earlier this year, reversing many of the gains made by Somali government forces and allied clan militias. Those forces had been bolstered by US and Turkish air support during an offensive launched in mid-2022. The militants also recaptured towns they had not controlled for more than a decade, including the strategic town of Mahas, which they lost in 2014 to Ethiopian troops.
“Then, inexplicably, the advance paused, leaving Somalia’s beleaguered federal government to claim victory while less sanguine observers wondered when the offensive might resume,” the report, written by Somalia analyst Matt Bryden, said.
The study warns that “absent a dramatic change in direction, likely near-term scenarios include collapse of the federal government and an al Shabaab takeover of the national capital, with profound consequences for regional stability and security.”
According to the report, the militant group reached the outskirts of Mogadishu earlier this year, establishing roadblocks that prompted foreign embassies to withdraw their non-essential staff.
It argues that Al-Shabaab’s growing threat is rooted in the Somali government’s dysfunction, corruption, and persistent political infighting between federal authorities and regional states.
“Al Shabaab’s strength, however, has always been a reflection of the Somali government’s weakness. Despite more than two decades of investment and billions of dollars in training and equipment, the Somali National Army (SNA) is still incapable of sustained clearing and holding operations,” the report said.
As Somali leaders remain divided, the report suggests the militants are choosing to wait as international partners grow weary of the political deadlock. That fatigue, it warns, could eventually result in reduced security assistance to the federal government and to AUSSOM, the African Union mission, raising the risk of a foreign troop withdrawal.
“Al Shabaab, for its part, seems content to watch and wait while its enemies quarrel, international partners cut back on security and development assistance, and AUSSOM contemplates withdrawal,” the report noted. “As a growing number of international partners have begun quietly exploring prospects for a negotiated peace with the militants, absent some deus ex machina to salvage Somalia’s federal system, al Shabaab’s seizure of Mogadishu may already be simply a matter of time—whether through military action or negotiations.”
The report warns that such an outcome would likely trigger “a new cycle of armed conflict” between an emboldened Al-Shabaab controlling a capital of four million people and its adversaries elsewhere in Somalia. Neighbouring countries would also face a heightened risk of renewed cross-border terrorist attacks.
“The time for hopeful half-measures is past. Only urgent, decisive, and concerted intervention can prevent Somalia from becoming a jihadist state,” the report warned.
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