MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has offered to mediate between Ethiopia and Egypt in their protracted dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), signalling a surprising diplomatic shift at a time of heightened regional tensions.
Speaking during the inauguration ceremony of the controversial dam on Tuesday, President Mohamud declared his government’s readiness to facilitate dialogue between Addis Ababa and Cairo, despite the complex dynamics surrounding the decade-long dispute over the Nile’s waters.
The Somali leader, traditionally seen as a close ally of Egypt, underscored his country’s neutral stance, affirming that Somalia enjoys friendly ties with both nations. While acknowledging Ethiopia’s right to development and resource utilization, he also emphasized the need to respect differing national priorities, whether for drinking, irrigation, or electricity generation.
His appearance at the GERD inauguration – alongside Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Kenya’s President William Ruto, and Djibouti’s President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh – sent ripples through diplomatic circles. A video widely circulated online showed Mohamud and Abiy walking together with their arms on each other’s shoulders, sharing a moment of warmth and camaraderie. The imagery was notable given Somalia’s recent alignment with Egypt, and it may raise concerns in Cairo, which has deepened its diplomatic and military engagement with Mogadishu.
Egypt has played a key role in supporting Somalia during a diplomatic standoff with Ethiopia last year over Addis Ababa’s controversial maritime access agreement with Somaliland – a self-declared republic not internationally recognised. Somalia denounced the deal as a breach of its sovereignty and sought to isolate Ethiopia diplomatically in response.
In recent weeks, however, Somali media have reported that President Mohamud is pursuing a recalibrated foreign policy, seeking to maintain cordial relations with both Cairo and Addis Ababa. His decision to attend the GERD ceremony is widely interpreted as an overture to Ethiopia, aimed at resetting bilateral ties after months of strained relations.
Despite the offer of mediation, analysts remain sceptical of Somalia’s capacity to broker a breakthrough in a dispute that has defied resolution by major global powers and regional blocs. The Somali federal government exercises limited control beyond the capital, Mogadishu, and continues to grapple with internal instability and insurgent threats.
Neither Ethiopia nor Egypt has publicly responded to the Somali proposal, and it remains unclear whether either side views Mogadishu as a credible interlocutor in the complex negotiations over Nile water rights.
The GERD, Africa’s largest hydroelectric project, has been at the centre of a regional rift since its inception. While Ethiopia views the dam as a vital engine of development and a source of electricity for tens of millions, Egypt fears it could significantly reduce its share of the Nile waters – a lifeline for its agriculture and population.
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