ADDIS ABABA (Somaliguardian) – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan traveled to Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, on Tuesday, where he publicly criticized Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, saying it benefits neither Somalia nor the broader Horn of Africa.
A principal aim of Mr. Erdogan’s visit was widely understood to be persuading Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, not to recognize Somaliland and to uphold Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity. In doing so, Ankara appears to be shifting from its customary quiet diplomacy and aligning more openly with Saudi Arabia and Egypt in countering what they view as potential moves by the United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia toward recognizing Somaliland.
Mr. Erdogan’s trip came only days after Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, visited Addis Ababa to discuss the same issue with Mr. Abiy. It remains unclear whether Ethiopia gave any assurances during that meeting.
Rashid Abdi, a prominent analyst of the Horn of Africa, noted that Ethiopia has a long record of resisting external pressure. Drawing on his experience with the country, he observed that public pressure from foreign governments is often resented by Ethiopian leaders and can prove counterproductive.
“Ethiopia is a deeply stubborn state and in the end Ethiopia does what Ethiopia wants,” he added.
Mr. Erdogan had also been expected over the weekend to meet the president of the United Arab Emirates, Mohamed bin Zayed, in discussions that analysts believed would include Somaliland. The meeting did not take place for reasons that have not been substantiated.
Earlier this month, Egypt’s president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, traveled to the United Arab Emirates to press Mr. bin Zayed directly not to recognize Somaliland, alongside other bilateral and regional concerns, including the conflict in Sudan.
Whether Turkey’s more assertive posture will alter calculations in Addis Ababa remains uncertain. There are persistent concerns in Mogadishu that the United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia could still proceed with plans to recognize Somaliland.
In early 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland reached an agreement that would have granted Addis Ababa access to the sea through Somaliland in exchange for recognition of the breakaway region, sharply escalating tensions with Somalia. The dispute appeared to ease after Turkey brokered a deal between Somalia and Ethiopia, under which Addis Ababa stepped back from its memorandum of understanding with Somaliland and agreed instead to pursue commercial port access in coordination with the Somali federal government.
That arrangement has yet to materialize, and apprehension remains that Ethiopia could revive its earlier memorandum with Somaliland.
Somalia’s federal government has recently severed all diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates, including defense and security partnerships, citing infringements on its sovereignty. Officials in Mogadishu believe the Emirates likely played a role in Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and may be encouraging other countries to follow suit, with Ethiopia viewed as a leading candidate.
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