MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Somalia’s federal government is reportedly planning to establish a parallel administration in the Gedo region of Jubaland, following the collapse of crucial talks between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Jubaland regional leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Madobe), which were held in Kismayo on Sunday.
The discussions – meant to resolve long-standing disputes over federal governance and regional autonomy – ended after more than four hours without reaching any agreement, prompting President Mohamud to abruptly cut short his visit and return to Mogadishu on Monday.
Confirming the plan, Somali Federal MP from Jubaland, Mursal Mohamed Khalif, warned that such a move could significantly undermine the ongoing war against the Al-Qaeda-linked militant group Al-Shabaab.
“Instead of uniting nation against Al-Shabaab which attacked NISA in Mogadishu few days ago @HassanSMohamudm is on a risky plan to wreak havoc in Jubaland,” the MP said in a post on X (formerly Twitter).
“Plan of a parallel Jubaland State in Gedo is a respite for Al-Shabaab as it diverts resources away from war on terror!.”
Talks Breakdown and Core Disputes
At the center of the failed negotiations was the controversial re-election of Ahmed Madobe in late 2024, which secured him a third term in office. President Mohamud has demanded that Madobe forgo this contested election and instead commit to participating in a nationwide one-person, one-vote election that federal authorities aim to hold by 2026.
In response, Madobe rejected the demand and insisted that the federal government:
- Recognize his 2024 election as legitimate.
- Acknowledge that the deployment of federal troops to Raskamboni was a mistake.
- Apologize for the resultant deadly clashes.
- Retract an arrest warrant issued by a Mogadishu-based court during the height of the dispute – a move many analysts say was politically motivated.
President Mohamud outrightly dismissed Madobe’s demands, further complicating efforts led by Kenyan intelligence chief Nuradin Hajji, who had been mediating between the two leaders. The mediation failed to bridge the gap, and both leaders walked away without scheduling further talks.
Two Strategic Options on the Table
Even before the talks, insiders say Villa Somalia had been weighing two key options to pressure Madobe:
- Build a parallel Jubaland administration in Gedo region – a long-discussed plan which has already seen significant federal military deployments.
- Ban imports of Kenyan khat – a lucrative trade for Kenyan exporters – to pressure Nairobi into persuading Madobe to accept the federal government’s terms.
Kenya remains a strong backer of Madobe and has played a crucial role in helping him retain control of Jubaland, particularly in Kismayo, despite multiple efforts to oust him.
With the talks now collapsed, observers believe President Mohamud is poised to move ahead with the Gedo-based parallel administration plan. Over the past few months, federal forces have already made significant advances, including seizing the strategic town of Balad Hawo, located on the border with Kenya, from Jubaland-aligned forces.
Implications for the War on Al-Shabaab
The unfolding political rift comes at a critical time in Somalia’s fight against Al-Shabaab, which continues to stage deadly attacks, including a recent assault on the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) headquarters in Mogadishu.
Critics argue that internal power struggles – particularly the move to establish a rival administration in Jubaland – could play into the hands of Al-Shabaab by weakening national unity and diverting resources from the battlefield.
As the federal government presses forward, tensions between Mogadishu and Kismayo are expected to deepen, threatening to further destabilize a region already plagued by insurgency and political fragmentation.
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